Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 2.291046 2.746334 3.256941 3.870295 4.585248 5.390422 6.363912
2025-12-07 1.534916 2.079622 2.757884 3.657678 4.812277 6.235569 8.113226
2025-12-14 1.146193 1.720206 2.499345 3.619291 5.169901 7.220247 10.111219
2025-12-21 0.896638 1.471193 2.311255 3.603712 5.510206 8.180451 12.153762
2025-12-28 0.775114 1.372576 2.302871 3.817695 6.171775 9.626703 14.994908
2026-01-04 0.659310 1.253923 2.235449 3.918965 6.661609 10.858859 17.635610
2026-01-11 0.579778 1.176882 2.215966 4.083000 7.254252 12.288661 20.692643
2026-01-18 0.491079 1.063603 2.113220 4.086759 7.576941 13.315764 23.204269
2026-01-25 0.400626 0.926885 1.943795 3.944506 7.626765 13.893553 25.030233
2026-02-01 0.327326 0.808057 1.785861 3.795622 7.638248 14.394841 26.755708
2026-02-08 0.281619 0.737693 1.709479 3.786847 7.895755 15.331723 29.286531
2026-02-15 0.244498 0.678341 1.645015 3.790241 8.171610 16.317999 31.973947
2026-02-22 0.208457 0.614458 1.562372 3.749125 8.364923 17.187396 34.556947
2026-03-01 0.168401 0.530577 1.420359 3.560779 8.241029 17.453105 36.058446
2026-03-08 0.144462 0.483269 1.354348 3.528786 8.432784 18.335061 38.781159
2026-03-15 0.125159 0.443909 1.300262 3.515207 8.659850 19.302221 41.738291
2026-03-22 0.118767 0.441334 1.338611 3.725011 9.396674 21.351341 46.962135
2026-03-29 0.108142 0.422881 1.332123 3.824239 9.894973 22.949659 51.399204
2026-04-05 0.100947 0.413766 1.349321 3.984773 10.549466 24.923259 56.731460
2026-04-12 0.089088 0.385518 1.307913 3.988467 10.835878 26.135779 60.579844
2026-04-19 0.074566 0.343267 1.217720 3.849294 10.763036 26.562261 62.811084
2026-04-26 0.062131 0.304623 1.130326 3.703644 10.655735 26.899507 64.870115
2026-05-03 0.054762 0.283591 1.093718 3.695060 10.891325 28.023927 68.705349